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Industry Opinion
The 90-Day Trade Truce: Déjà Vu or Do-Over?
By Joe Altieri, FIT Adjunct Professor, Mentor, Educator, and Trainer
I’m a paragraph. Drag me to add paragraph to your block, write your own text and edit me.Markets cheered the recent U.S.–China tariff truce, but for those in the apparel industry, the mood should be far less celebratory. This is not a breakthrough. It’s a rerun. We’ve been here before.
Back in 2018, the first trade war “pause” looked like progress—until it wasn’t. Tariffs were eased, headlines were hopeful, and the markets bounced. But no structural change followed. No mass reshoring. No manufacturing renaissance. The global sourcing machine simply shifted gears, rerouting orders from China to Vietnam, Bangladesh, and elsewhere. The moment passed—and with it, the momentum.
Now, in 2025, history is repeating itself. Once again, tariff rates are rolled back: from 145% to 30% on U.S. imports and from 125% to 10% on Chinese exports. A 90-day window. A political handshake. And once again, a wave of relief washed over an industry desperate for clarity.
But here’s the hard truth: relief is not reform. A pause is not a plan. And this window won’t stay open forever.
2018: A Case Study in ComplacencyLet’s be clear: the 2018 truce did not deliver its intended results. It failed to address the core concerns of trade imbalance, intellectual property (IP) theft, and technology transfers. And more critically, for our industry, it failed to spark real investment in domestic apparel manufacturing.
2025: A Second Chance—Or a Second Failure?This year’s truce provides short-term predictability for brands weary from years of turbulence. But structurally? Not much has changed:• Tariffs are lower—for now—but enforcement mechanisms remain unclear.• Core trade tensions remain unresolved.• Most sourcing remains China-centric or reliant on the same extended supply chain vulnerabilities that were exposed during the pandemic.
Think tanks and economists are already signaling caution:• “This pause is a tactical move, not a strategic shift.” (Oxford Economics)• “There’s no evidence of a long-term de-escalation plan.” (ANZ Research)• “The retaliatory ecosystem is still intact.” (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
Smart Money Moves—Why Apparel Must Wake UpMarkets have responded with algorithmic optimism—Nike, Gap, and Lululemon all popped. But seasoned investors know this isn’t about the upside. It’s an exit opportunity, not a buy signal.The apparel industry has a choice to make. Do we treat this like 2018—another breath between punches? Or do we finally act like a sector that’s learned something?
Because this isn’t just about tariffs; it’s about independence, agility, and long-term value creation. It’s about building infrastructure that can withstand the next shock—whether geopolitical, environmental, or economic.I’m a paragraph. Drag me to add paragraph to your block, write your own text and edit me.
Reshoring Isn’t a Fantasy—It’s a Failure (So Far) of WillLet’s silence the skeptics who still claim reshoring apparel is impractical:• Technology is on our side: AI-assisted cutting, robotic sewing, digital printing, and on-demand production all dramatically reduce labor dependence and waste.• Policy is aligned: Federal and state incentives for domestic manufacturing are the strongest they’ve been in a generation.• Consumers are ready: Gen Z and Millennials are demanding transparent, ethical supply chains—“Made in USA” matters more now than it did even five years ago.• Labor is available: With the right investment in training and career ladders, workforce pipelines are viable—especially in communities that other industries have left behind.
If we continue to view reshoring as an ideological talking point rather than an operational strategy, we’ll fall behind not just China but also the EU, Canada, and Latin America—regions that are already investing heavily in nearshoring and sustainable manufacturing ecosystems.
What the Apparel Industry Must Do During This Truce1. Reaudit Your Supply ChainKnow where every button and bolt of fabric originates—and where your risk lies.2. Pilot Domestic and Nearshore ProductionStart small. Prove it can work. Expand it smartly.3. Work With PolicymakersPush for tax credits, capital investment subsidies, and workforce training that supports long-term capacity building.4. Invest in Infrastructure and TalentAutomation doesn’t replace people—it changes the skills required. Invest in training centers, not just equipment.5. Don’t Wait for Another CrisisIf we only act when panic strikes, we’ll keep repeating this cycle—pause, panic, pivot too late.
Final Thought: The Real Opportunity Is NowThis 90-day pause isn’t just a trade headline. It’s a final warning.If we treat 2025 the way we treated 2018, we will have no one to blame but ourselves when the next disruption hits, and we’re still stitching our margins together in someone else’s factory.
Yes, this is a profit window, yes—but it’s also a progress window. Don’t waste it.